Still confused about whether or not you'll be able to schedule your Sunday afternoons for the foreseeable future? Consult our guide to the (horrible!) possibility of lockouts in the NFL and the NBA
If you've only been paying attention to the Dallas Mavericks' dramatic run or Tom Brady's ponytail bobbing daintily at Carnival, you'd probably assume that all was well in the NBA and NFL. Unfortunately, you'd be wrong. The latter is already months deep into a lockout—and the former is bracing for a lockout of its own once its collective bargaining agreement expires on June 30th. Whether you don't know the difference between Vince Wilfork and Vince Carter or you're planning to have yourself cryogenically frozen if either league misses games, you should be able to keep pace with the ongoing discussions. Here, GQ breaks down the issues behind all the drama.
NBA Lockout
The Issues 1. Length and Size of Contracts: The owners feel that contracts are too long and too extravagant, leaving many franchises tied to massive busts that doom their rebuilding hopes for years. An example: Last season Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, and Andrei Kirilenko combined to make more than the entire Chicago Bulls roster, but gave their teams next to nothing in return. The owners never want to guarantee another contract for more than four years, which would be a massive change from the current system. Players don't feel that they should take a hit because James Dolan couldn't figure out that Eddy Curry isn't Hakeem Olajuwon.
Threat Level: 6/10. Both sides know that contracts are a little out of control (proof: Gilbert Arenas owns an aquarium filled with sharks), but it'll take some time to get them to agree on new terms.
2. Salary Cap: Unlike the NFL, the NBA has a "soft" salary cap, meaning that teams can exceed the spending ceiling under certain circumstances. (One example is the Mid-Level Exception, which permits teams with bloated rosters to still sign new players to the league-average salary even if they're over the cap.) Owners would like to see a shift to a "harder" cap, but would also like to have some way to retain their superstars. The players love the way the soft cap enables more spending on salaries, so a hard cap seems very unlikely. What we could see, though, is a soft cap with fewer exceptions (now being dubbed a "flex-cap"), and an adoption of the NFL's franchise tag, which allows teams to lock a player into a lucrative one-year contract to prevent him from leaving. Sorry, Knicks fans—if only Chris Paul's parents had met a few years earlier.
Threat Level: 10/10. The owners and players are greatly distanced on this issue. Last year the "soft" cap was $58 million; this year, the Dallas Mavericks had a payroll of $90 million. A harder cap would make for a dramatically different league, and the players will be relentless in trying to minimize change.
3. Basketball Related Income (BRI): Currently, the players receive 57% of the BRI, which includes things like merchandise sales, stadium naming rights, and league sponsorships. This year their slice netted the players $2.1 billion in total salaries, $750 million of which the owners are trying to recoup, while also bringing the player's annual share closer to 50%. NBA Commissioner David Stern is griping about the over $1 billion in losses the owners have suffered since the current collective bargaining agreement took effect five years ago. The players beg to differ, pointing out that A) the NBA just enjoyed a season of record revenues, and B) giving the owners 50% would be like giving Rob Schneider half of the revenues from The Waterboy.
Threat Level: 10/10. BRI and the new salary cap will go hand-in-hand. If the cap remains soft, the owners will have to spend more on player salaries to stay competitive—but if it becomes significantly harder, the players' share of BRI will be reduced.
NFL Lockout
The Issues 1. Dividing Revenue: Unlike the NBA, the NFL turns ridiculous profits every year. Usually, there's about $9 billion to split between owners and players. The owners have been taking a billion off the top, and spending 60% of the rest on player salaries. Initially the owners wanted take $2.4 billion to offset the fact that taxpayers are no longer footing the bills for stadiums and facilities. The players, though, argue that going across the middle while Ray Lewis prepares to put you in a coma is a lot riskier than dipping into your billions to build a new Jumbotron. Now both sides have agreed to simplify the talks: the current negotiations are based on a model where 48% of all revenue goes to the players, and the rest goes to the owners.
Threat Level: 7/10. Revenue sharing will be the tipping point of these negotiations, but both sides seem to be moving closer together after the owners agreed to not skim any income off the top.
2. Schedule Length: For many Americans, fall weekends revolve around the NFL, and the League would love to add two more Sundays of corny Peyton Manning commercials and $9 stadium beers. The only problem: Commissioner Roger Goodell has been outspoken about ramping up player safety, and the only thing that would threaten players' health more than two extra games would be swapping out the current rulebook for the settings from NFL Blitz. Realizing this, the league has designated schedule length as a "negotiable item," (which is sort of a douchey thing to do in the middle of a "negotiation"). One new wrinkle: both sides are discussing moving one game every week to Thursday nights in an attempt to increase revenue and further erode your social life.
Threat Level: 3/10. There's normal hypocrisy, then there's standard Roger Goodell-level hypocrisy, and finally there's the prospect of adding games to an already wildly dangerous sport. We might see 17 games and a shorter preseason, but 18 games seems all but off the table.
3. Rookie Wage Scale: One of the few aspects of the NBA that NFL owners envy is the rookie wage scale, which locks rookies into contracts based solely on where they're picked in the draft. Currently, NFL rookies negotiate their deals the same way that free agents do, which is why JaMarcus Russell was able to rake in more than the GDP of some small countries without ever, you know, being in shape or playing well. For bad teams, getting a high pick in the draft is like getting a free garage before you can afford a car.
Threat Level: 2/10. Most everyone recognizes the absurdity of the current rookie system, and the players and owners should see eye-to-eye here: less money for rookies means fatter contracts for the veterans currently affected by the negotiations.
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